Forty-two productions are eligible for Tony Award nominations this year – the announcements come Thursday morning – making many of the categories very, very competitive. Will the movie and TV stars take over the awards just as they’ve done at the box office? Is there room in the major categories for the high-tech items like Stranger Things: The First Shadow and The Picture Of Dorian Gray? And can anything stop Cole Escola and Oh, Mary! I wouldn’t bet on it.
The nominations for The 78th Annual Tony Awards will be announced Thursday, May 1, live from Sofitel New York on the Tony Awards official YouTube page at 9 a.m. ET. A selection of categories will be revealed live on CBS Mornings at 8:30 a.m. ET. A complete list of nominees will be available at TonyAwards.com immediately following the announcement.
The Tony Awards themselves are set for Sunday, June 8, airing live from Radio City Music Hall at 8 p.m. ET/5 p.m. PT on CBS, and streaming on Paramount+.
Here then are my predictions and preferences in select categories.
Best Play
A crowded field, with five available slots. Oh, Mary! and John Proctor Is The Villain are shoo-ins, and both The Hills of California and English are likely nominees. I’d be happy seeing that group get the nods, which leaves one slot open for the wild cards. Cult of Love is in the running, Purpose, the Branden Jacobs-Jenkins family drama that is a barely-veiled take on Jesse Jackson and Jesse Jackson Jr., has a more than good chance at a nomination, and star power could save Good Night, and Good Luck, though the George Clooney-Grant Heslov play was not overwhelmingly adored by critics – Clooney has a better chance of getting an acting nomination. Two other contenders – The Picture of Dorian Gray and Stranger Things: The First Shadow – might be seen as too reliant on special effects, and that’s a shame. Both are at least as worthy of a nomination as Good Night, and Good Luck.
Best Musical
Can’t argue with the five most likely nominees: Maybe Happy Ending, Dead Outlaw, Death Becomes Her, Buena Vista Social Club and Operation Mincemeat. The gorgeous Swept Away has a devoted following, but its quick come-and-go last fall makes it a long shot.
Best Play Revival
Unless there’s a rare tie, this category will have four slots. Both the starry Glengarry Glen Ross and the excellent Eureka Day are as close to certain as these things get, and Othello and Yellow Face are likely to join the competition. Wild cards and/or long shots: Our Town, Romeo + Juliet and Home.
Best Musical Revival
Another four-nominee category. Not much of a dilemma – the easy bets are Floyd Collins, Gypsy, Sunset Blvd. and Pirates! The Penzance Musical. Once Upon A Mattress could edge out Pirates!, but doubtful.
Best Actor In A Play
This one is Cole Escola‘s to lose – their performance in Oh, Mary! was acclaimed by critics and adored by audiences. Jake Gyllenhaal was the best thing about Othello, and star power and big box office puts Denzel Washington and George Clooney in the running. The fifth slot could go to either Daniel Dae Kim for Yellow Face or Jon Michael Hill for Purpose, but my choice would be Louis McCartney, the young actor who gives a chilling performance in Stranger Things: The First Shadow.
Best Actress In A Play
Sarah Snook‘s performance – multiple performances, really – in The Picture Of Dorian Gray makes her a certain nominee, and Laura Donnelly‘s two-character turn in The Hills of California puts her in the running. Sadie Sink is a marvel in John Proctor Is The Villain, and LaTanya Richardson Jackson as the rigid matriarch of Purpose was an absolute scene-stealer. And the fifth slot? Probably Mia Farrow (The Roommate)
Best Actor In A Musical
Another category where my “should wins” and “will wins” are pretty much the same: Darren Criss for Maybe Happy Ending; Jonathan Groff, Just in Time; Jeremy Jordan, Floyd Collins; and Andrew Durand, Dead Outlaw. That leaves Tom Francis of Sunset Blvd. and John Gallagher Jr. of Swept Away to duke it out for the fifth slot. Gallagher could get the nomination to give Swept Away some love, but Francis’ livecam walk-and-sing down 44th Street is hard to ignore.
Best Actress In A Musical
Audra McDonald (Gypsy) and Nicole Scherzinger (Sunset Blvd.) are all but sure things, and both Megan Hilty and Jennifer Simard should get in for their brilliant double-whammy performances in Death Becomes Her. That leaves Boop‘s Jasmine Amy Rogers and Helen J Shen of Maybe Happy Ending likely vying for the fifth slot (I’d lean towards Shen). But we can’t count out Adrienne Warren of The Last Five Years or Idina Menzel for Redwood. Both are Broadway favorites, but both have done better work in better productions.
Best Featured Actor In A Play
This one will be interesting. Kieran Culkin is as much as nominated already, but any of his Glengarry Glen Ross castmates – Bob Odenkirk, Bill Burr and Michael McKean – could join him. I’d choose Culkin, for sure, but I’d give the other slots to Conrad Ricamora, whose hilarious Abe Lincoln is one of the many joys of Oh, Mary!, Gabriel Ebert, the shockingly sleazy teacher in John Proctor Is the Villain, and Francis Jue, who played the demanding (but very funny) father in Yellow Face. For the fifth slot, I’d go with either of two actors in Eureka Day – Bill Irwin or Thomas Middleditch.
Best Featured Actor In A Musical
Jak Malone will get a well-deserved nomination for his heartbreaking performance of the song “Dear Bill” in the comedy Operation Mincemeat, and Danny Burstein is a favorite for Gypsy. Christopher Sieber (Death Becomes Her) looks good for the race, and Thom Sesma gives a wonderfully outrageous turn as famed coroner Thomas Noguchi in Dead Outlaw. Taylor Trensch should get in for his performance as the unlikely hero of Floyd Collins, but the spoiler for every slot save Malone’s could be Brooks Ashmanskas for Smash.
Best Featured Actress In A Play
Another very competitive race. Kara Young (Purpose), Jessica Hecht (Eureka Day), Leanne Best (The Hills of California) and Mare Winningham (Cult of Love) are strong possibilities, but Tala Ashe and Marjan Neshat, both of English, shouldn’t be overlooked. Nor should Amalia Yoo (John Proctor is the Villain). Too tough to call – I hate to drop any one of them. But if I have to, I’d probably start with Winningham and Best. I certainly won’t be unhappy if they make it though.
Best Featured Actress In A Musical
The likely contenders: Natalie Venetia Belcon (Buena Vista Social Club), Joy Woods (Gypsy), Bernadette Peters (Stephen Sondheim’s Old Friends), Michelle Williams (Death Becomes Her) and Lesli Margherita (Gypsy). I’d probably replace any one of them with Julia Knitel, who turns in such a sweet performance in Dead Outlaw. Possible wildcard: Lea Salonga, Peters’ castmate in the Sondheim revue, turns in a terrific Everything’s Coming Up Roses.
Best Director Of A Play
Likely nominees are Knud Adams (English), Sam Mendes (The Hills of California), Sam Pinkleton (Oh, Mary!), Anna D. Shapiro (Eureka Day) and Danya Taymor (John Proctor Is the Villain). I wouldn’t argue with any of them. But I’d love to see Stephen Daldry and Justin Martin honored for their co-direction of Stranger Things: The First Shadow, which deserves more respect than it got from some critics. And by the way, if David Cromer get a nod for Good Night, And Good Luck, he might well be competing in both the directing categories for the Best Play and Best Musical – he also directed Dead Outlaw this season.
Best Director Of A Musical
Expect nominations for Michael Arden (Maybe Happy Ending), David Cromer (Dead Outlaw), Tina Landau (Floyd Collins), George C. Wolfe (Gypsy) and Jamie Lloyd (Sunset Blvd.) Possible spoiler (and my choice is Christopher Gattelli (Death Becomes Her), who I’d choose over either Wolfe or Landau (talented as they may be, I think they’ve done better work elsewhere).
Complete List Of Eligible Productions
New Musicals
A Wonderful World: The Louis Armstrong Musical
Boop! The Musical
Buena Vista Social Club
Dead Outlaw
Death Becomes Her
Just In Time
Maybe Happy Ending
Operation Mincemeat
Real Women Have Curves
Redwood
Smash
Stephen Sondheim’s Old Friends
Swept Away
Tammy Faye
New Plays
All In: Comedy About Love
Cult of Love
English
Good Night, and Good Luck
Job
John Proctor Is the Villain
Left on Tenth
McNeal
Oh, Mary!
Purpose
Stranger Things: The First Shadow
The Hills of California
The Picture of Dorian Gray
The Roommate
Musical Revivals
Elf The Musical
Floyd Collins
Gypsy
Once Upon A Mattress
Pirates! The Penzance Musical
Sunset Boulevard
The Last Five Years
Play Revivals
Eureka Day
Glengarry Glen Ross
Home
Othello
Our Town
Romeo + Juliet
Yellow Face